Scientists are warning that a potentially record-breaking El Niño is developing in the Pacific, with temperatures projected to rise as much as 3.6 degrees Celsius above average, a magnitude unseen in recorded history. Historical extremes of 2.5 degrees have been reached only four times in 150 years, and some models draw parallels to the devastating 1997 event. Spanish meteorologists note temperatures have climbed steadily since February.
The weather phenomenon threatens global food security at a time when the United Nations estimates 266 million people are already undernourished. The Food and Agriculture Organization identifies Africa's Sahel, southern Africa, southeast Asia and Central America's Dry Corridor as most at risk, with some areas facing drought probabilities exceeding 50 percent. The World Bank warns rice yields in affected regions could fall 20 to 50 percent.
JP Morgan estimates that El Niño combined with $100-a-barrel oil could push food prices up 1.5 percent this year and exceed five percent by 2027. Scientists fear the combination with global warming could drive temperatures to new records in 2027.