An El Niño event is now firmly established across the central tropical Pacific and could become the strongest on record, with sea surface temperature anomalies projected to far exceed historical norms. The Bureau of Meteorology says the phenomenon is locked in place and may persist through at least the coming summer.
Climatologist Zeke Hausfather, reviewing 14 seasonal model forecasts, said ocean temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region could deviate by as much as 3.6 degrees above normal — 0.8 degrees warmer than any previous record and what he described as a potentially historic margin. Portugal's IPMA forecasts a greater than 80% probability of a very strong event lasting into early 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned of escalating extreme weather risks, particularly in tropical zones. Agrocura expects global grain output could halve, with food prices rising 10–15%. Major Australian cities face at least an 80% chance of extreme heat from August to October.