Russia plans to mobilize as many as 500,000 people for its war against Ukraine this autumn, according to Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, who outlined the assessment on July 18. Ukrainian analysts expect the mobilization to be announced after Russia's State Duma elections, scheduled for September 18–20, with some recruits potentially deployed to the front within the first two weeks of the call-up. Independent Russian media have reported that the Kremlin is considering an October mobilization.
The push comes as contract recruitment fell 20 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine's military intelligence said Russia signed contracts with roughly 195,000 soldiers in the first half of 2026, falling short of its 204,000 target. The Kremlin is seeking to avoid another mobilization before the autumn elections.
Ukraine's armed forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi previously stated that Russia aims to recruit approximately 409,000 troops and form at least 11 new divisions. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated Russian casualties at 1.4 million killed and wounded as of early July 2026.