El Niño has a 69% probability of becoming the most powerful event since records began in 1950, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned, with the climate pattern already showing sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius in the eastern Pacific.
The agency raised the possibility of a historic event between October and December that could push temperatures 2.5 degrees above average. There is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event persisting through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27, and a 97% likelihood it will last into early spring 2027. Emerging in June, the phenomenon has strengthened considerably over the past month.
NOAA revised its Atlantic hurricane season forecast downward on 6 August to a maximum of 13 storms while projecting up to 22 cyclones in the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States, with average temperatures nearly 25 degrees Celsius.