US intelligence assessments conclude that Russian President Vladimir Putin may launch a limited attack on a NATO member between this autumn and 2029 to test the alliance's resolve, according to reports citing American officials. Scenarios under review range from cyberattacks and incursions by unmarked armed groups to a limited ground invasion, with the Baltic states and Poland seen as the most likely targets.
The reassessment marks a shift from earlier US judgments that Putin would avoid provoking NATO while still engaged in heavy fighting in Ukraine. Signs of Russian probing have multiplied: a Russian cruise missile cratered Polish territory in late July, drones have entered Romanian airspace, and an explosives-laden drone linked to Russian intelligence was found at a German airport.
The warnings come as the United States faces critical ammunition shortages, including long-range precision missiles and Stinger systems, while nearly 80% of THAAD interceptors have been depleted compared to pre-war levels.