Multiple opinion surveys project Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon advancing to the second round of France's presidential election, scheduled for April 2027, with Le Pen holding a commanding lead in head-to-head matchups.
Le Pen would capture 35 to 38 percent of the first-round vote, while Mélenchon has risen to between 16 and 17 percent, up from 12 percent in April. A Toluna Harris Interactive poll found Le Pen holds at least a 16-point advantage over her nearest rival in every scenario. In a runoff, she would defeat Mélenchon with roughly 64 to 68 percent of the vote. When centrist candidates fragment the field — including Édouard Philippe at 14 percent and Raphaël Glucksmann, who formally declared his candidacy on Sunday, at 10 percent — Mélenchon and Philippe tie for second at 17 percent if Gabriel Attal does not run.
The prospect of a Le Pen–Mélenchon final has drawn alarm across the political spectrum. Édouard Philippe called the risk real and serious, while government spokesperson Maud Bregeon acknowledged the likelihood has grown. Mélenchon, meanwhile, has threatened a no-confidence motion against Sébastien Lecornu's government if its 2027 budget plan proceeds unchanged.