Iranian military planners have evaluated options to strike American assets and military sites in Europe if President Donald Trump expands the confrontation or threatens Iranian infrastructure. Targets under review include U.S. interests in southeast European nations such as Bulgaria, which recently approved American use of the Bezmer air base for refueling operations, and Cyprus, where a British air base was hit by a drone in March. Iranian forces have also studied attacking underwater fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in an escalation scenario.
The assessments reflect a hardening mood in Tehran following the collapse last month of a June memorandum of understanding and stalled diplomacy. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei elevated hardliner Mohsen Rezaei to head the Supreme National Security Council, a move analysts see as marginalizing pragmatist negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Defense analysts note that while Iran can deploy medium-range Shahab-type missiles toward southern Europe, their effectiveness diminishes significantly over distance.