Goldman Sachs has barred employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to specific companies, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics, updating its personal-trading policy to address growing compliance risks. Repeat violators face dismissal or account closure, and the bank may claw back gains above $200 or donate them to charity.
The move follows federal charges in May 2026 against a Google employee who allegedly earned roughly $1.2 million trading Polymarket contracts using confidential knowledge of the company's "Year in Search" data. Wider industry responses vary: Point72 Asset Management and Balyasny Asset Management imposed outright bans on personal prediction-market activity, while JPMorgan Chase merely urged caution. Only three of 50 firms surveyed by CNBC reported having formal policies, with two more under review.
Prediction platforms are tightening oversight. Kalshi introduced employment verification tools and partnered with compliance firms, while Polymarket is working with Chainalysis and Palantir to flag suspicious sports-market activity.