Global food prices are forecast to climb 11.8% this year and a further 4.8% in 2027, driven by conflict in the Black Sea region and extreme weather across Europe, according to Oxford Economics. The projected increase, while substantial, remains below the 14.2% surge recorded in 2022.
Cereals, which make up a quarter of the global food price index, face intense pressure. Wheat is expected to jump 36% year on year to $6.92 a bushel in the third quarter, while Coceral cut its EU-27 and UK grain harvest forecast to 286.6 million tonnes, down from 310 million tonnes in 2025. Germany's output alone is seen falling 7% after severe drought and heatwaves. Meanwhile, attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports threaten 86 million tonnes of annual grain-export capacity, nearly 17% of global cereal exports.
Rising input costs compound the squeeze, with fertiliser prices forecast to rise 22% in 2026 and diesel surging 36% year on year in July. Fresh-food prices could begin reflecting the disruption between October and November, with processed foods hit hardest between February and May 2027.