The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% when it announces its decision on Wednesday, according to a Reuters poll in which all 104 surveyed economists predicted a hold.
The meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh's second since taking office, comes as policymakers navigate conflicting pressures. U.S. consumer prices rose at a 3.5% annual rate last month — well above the Fed's 2% target — while renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have driven energy markets higher. Brent crude closed above $100 a barrel last week for the first time since late May, though prices retreated Monday on signs of a pause in strikes. The two-year Treasury yield ended last week at 4.33%, above the Fed's own policy ceiling, reflecting market unease.
Warsh will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern following the 2 p.m. announcement. Key data on second-quarter GDP and the PCE inflation gauge are due Thursday.