Wildfires could scorch nearly three times as much land across Europe by the end of the century under high greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Published in the journal Global Change Biology, the research projects that the annual burned area could rise by 39 percent under 1.8 degrees of warming and by 192 percent under a 3.6-degree scenario.
Lead author Maik Billing and his colleagues found that Central Europe, large parts of Western Europe, and the Mediterranean basin would be among the hardest-hit regions. Improved fire management, however, could reduce the burned area by 72 to 92 percent compared with scenarios lacking such measures.
The findings arrive as Europe endures one of its worst fire seasons on record, with roughly 616,000 hectares burned across the European Union by mid-August. Record seasonal totals have already been logged in Belgium, France, and Slovakia.