wiredesk

Bank of Italy sees modest growth and flags Hormuz risk to inflation outlook

· Business ITA

The Bank of Italy projects the domestic economy will expand just 0.5% this year, slowing to 0.4% in 2027 before recovering to 0.9% in 2028, as the central bank cautioned that geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could intensify inflationary pressures.

Italian consumer inflation is estimated at 3.1% in 2026, with the central bank expecting it to return to 2% over the following two years. The latest economic bulletin signals that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates as soon as September, with eurozone-wide inflation forecast at 3.0% this year.

Labour market conditions remain resilient. Employment rose in the first quarter and again through April and May, pushing the unemployment rate to a new record low. Contracted wage growth is expected to stay moderate, with only 12% of private-sector workers awaiting contract renewals.

Covered by 3 outlets in Italy

Sources

The reporting this story is built on

ansa.it ITA Bankitalia, Pil a 0,6% e poi 0,4% nel 2027, rischio elevato da Hormuz - Notizie - Ansa.itadnkronos.com ITA Il bollettino economico di Bankitalia 'avvicina' un nuovo rialzo dei tassi Bceilsole24ore.com ITA Lavoro: Bankitalia, occupazione positiva ma aumento retribuzioni moderato

Related stories

OECD forecasts Italian real wages to fall 0.9% in 2026 amid energy price surge Italy's real wages are expected to decline 0.9 percent in 2026, dragged down by a renewed surge in energy prices, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-… Italy's inflation eases to 3.0% in June as grocery costs cool Italy's annual inflation rate slipped to 3.0 percent in June from 3.2 percent the prior month, as a sharp decline in grocery and household essentials costs offs… Italy's maritime economy approaches 225 billion euros in value Italy’s maritime economy has reached a valuation of nearly €225 billion, representing 11.4% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), according to details… IMF trims global growth outlook for 2026 while raising UK forecast The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2026 global growth projection to 3.0%, a 0.1 percentage-point cut from April, while lifting its 2027 estimate to… Italy's INPS overhauls pension-backed lending rules with mandatory digital processes Italy's national social security institute has overhauled operational rules for loans backed by pension deductions of up to one-fifth of income, shifting the en… Italy swelters as third heat wave of summer pushes temperatures past 40°C Italy is gripped by its third heat wave of summer 2026, with average temperatures hovering around 35°C and peaks expected to breach 40°C in parts of the country…