Russia-Ukraine War

The NATO leaders' summit in Ankara entered its second and final day on Wednesday with a North Atlantic Council session at the heads-of-state level, as the alliance works to shift conventional defence responsibilities toward European members while Washington retains its nuclear deterrence role.

Leaders are expected to confirm a spending pledge of 3.5% of GDP on direct defence and 1.5% on infrastructure by 2035, alongside a €70 billion military aid package for Ukraine in 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend. The final communiqué will also call on Iran to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons. Poland's delegation, led by President Karol Nawrocki, is scheduled to hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon.

The summit has been marked by heavy security and a ban on all public gatherings through 10 July. On Tuesday, at least 75 people were detained during protests in Ankara, including students and opposition figures.

Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that Western allies have a narrowing two-month window to pressure Russia into peace negotiations with Ukraine before Moscow may escalate the conflict. Speaking on the sidelines of a NATO leaders' meeting in Ankara, Pavel cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order a general mobilisation after parliamentary elections on 20 September, making negotiations far less likely.

Pavel, who attended the summit alongside Prime Minister Andrej Babis, urged allies to leverage current pressure on Moscow. NATO leaders discussed plans to bolster the alliance's defences against a potential Russian attack, with Secretary General Mark Rutte declaring that "NATO delivers". U.S. President Donald Trump described the meeting as marked by "a lot of love" and unity.

Meanwhile, Russia banned diesel exports and began importing fuel to manage a domestic fuel crisis driven by Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. The United Nations has reported that over 16,000 civilians have been killed in the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish President Karol Nawrocki met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, holding their first face-to-face talks since a diplomatic rift over Ukrainian nationalist symbols strained relations between the two allies.

The roughly one-hour meeting was described by Nawrocki as constructive, though he said the historical dispute between the two countries remained unresolved. Nawrocki reaffirmed his unchanged position on the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, saying Poland cannot accept UPA symbolism and that crimes attributed to the group are non-negotiable. He declined to discuss the Volhynia massacre, which he labelled a genocide. In June, Nawrocki revoked Zelensky's highest Polish state honour after a Ukrainian military unit was named after UPA heroes.

Both leaders emphasised that Russia remains the primary shared threat and agreed to continue dialogue.

Russia has banned exports of diesel following a government meeting on the fuel and transport sector held on 7 July 2026, as the country prepares to begin importing fuel this month to meet surging domestic demand.

The move comes as Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian refineries deep inside the country. A Monday attack forced the largest refinery in Siberia, in Omsk, to halt operations, and Russia has lost nearly half of its oil processing capacity. Fuel demand is up a third compared to last year.

President Vladimir Putin acknowledged in late July that Russia faces a "certain shortage" of fuel. On the Crimean peninsula, gasoline sales to private individuals have been banned and authorities have declared an emergency.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš declared on 8 July 2026 that his country will not contribute to the €70 billion military aid package for Ukraine confirmed by NATO allies at the Ankara summit, opting instead for a smaller, one-time payment into the PURL munitions programme. Babiš said Foreign Minister Petr Macinka located the funds within the foreign ministry's existing budget rather than committing to the broader German-proposed assistance figure.

The PURL initiative allows European allies and Canada to voluntarily purchase US-made weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Opposition ODS leader Martin Kupka argued the government should prioritise the separate Czech-backed ammunition initiative, which offers opportunities for domestic arms manufacturers.

Babiš urged Europe to focus on developing a European Patriot system for ballistic missile defence. The Czech Republic also declined to join Denmark, the Netherlands, and Estonia in signing a drone technology cooperation agreement with Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump proposed granting Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air-defense missiles during a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. Zelenskyy called the proposal a "great idea", saying his country urgently needs the defense systems.

Trump acknowledged the plan has not yet been discussed with manufacturers Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, and noted Ukraine would quickly learn the complexity involved in production. In a separate move to bolster Kyiv's defenses, Norway announced a contribution of 3 billion kroner to Ukraine's air-defense capabilities. Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin later Wednesday.

The talks come as the war intensifies: Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk overnight, while a Russian missile attack on Kharkiv on July 7 killed two people and wounded roughly 20. Civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2026 remain significantly higher than in the same period last year.

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Monday about a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, saying both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky want a deal to end the war that began in February 2022. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump described the conflict as largely a drone war and noted that both leaders were difficult negotiators, comparing the fighting to children brawling in a park.

The diplomatic push followed a near-90-minute phone call between Trump and Putin on U.S. Independence Day, during which Trump offered to mediate. Moscow has signaled it seeks a settlement that preserves its control over the Donbas, while claims that Russian forces captured the city of Kostiantynivka remain disputed by Kyiv. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly continuing negotiations.

Zelensky, who joined Trump in addressing journalists in Ankara, said there were realistic prospects for an end to the war. Both leaders had earlier congratulated Washington on its 250th independence anniversary.

The European Parliament on Wednesday passed an amendment expressing regret over the recent escalation caused by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he renamed a military unit in honor of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). The amendment, tabled by the European People's Party, was adopted by a significant majority with 592 votes in favor, 42 against, and 11 abstentions.

The resolution, attached to the parliament's 2025 report on Ukraine's accession process, states that the decision ignores the sensitive and painful nature of the UPA issue for Polish society, given the estimated tens of thousands of victims. The European Conservatives and Reformists faction had sought to pause opening further negotiation clusters until Kyiv acknowledges the ethnic cleansing campaigns against Poles.

The dispute escalated in late June, contributing to tensions that saw Zelenskyy skip a reconstruction conference in Gdańsk. Ukrainian historian Volodymyr Viatrovych argued that Kyiv should maintain firm rhetoric and not make concessions, which he said only embolden Polish politicians.

A fractured Czech delegation drew attention at the NATO summit in Ankara, as CNN described the dual representation by both Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and President Petr Pavel as a consequence of a domestic political dispute.

The two leaders travelled separately and were seen together for the first time only moments before a pre-summit dinner, where Babiš was seated next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Pavel joined Balkan and Baltic leaders. Babiš later characterised the dinner as informal, with no discussion of NATO spending, while Pavel said defence expenditures and Ukraine support were on the agenda. Pavel attended at the personal invitation of Turkish President Recep Erdoğan despite government reluctance to send him.

During formal sessions, Babiš held bilateral talks with leaders of the Netherlands, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Slovenia, while Pavel met counterparts from Finland, Poland, Belgium, and others, focusing on defence spending, Ukraine support, and European defence industry integration.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out any prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine and called on Moscow to end the war, saying the choice now rests with the Kremlin. Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Merz pledged continued support for Kyiv as Berlin spearheaded a European initiative to channel €70 billion in aid to Ukraine this year and next, part of a broader €140 billion military assistance package planned for 2026–2027.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending the summit, renewed his push for NATO membership and is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy also signed three new drone cooperation agreements with Denmark, Estonia, and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, senior German lawmakers stressed the need to involve Trump in resolving the conflict, and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius reported progress in talks with Washington on acquiring Tomahawk cruise missiles. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces struck 19 tankers from Russia's shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov over the past 72 hours.

Russia unleashed a massive barrage of 68 missiles and 351 drones against Kyiv overnight on 6 July, killing at least 22 people and wounding dozens in one of the largest aerial assaults on the Ukrainian capital in months.

Ukrainian air defences downed a high proportion of cruise missiles but failed to intercept any ballistic weapons, underscoring the deficiencies President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed allies to address at the NATO summit in Ankara. The bombardment continued into 8 July, with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reporting strikes ignited fires in two city districts.

The escalation coincides with alliance deliberations over a commitment to 70 billion euros in military support for Ukraine across this year and next, as Moscow seeks to demonstrate its capacity to inflict damage despite diplomatic pressure.

Ukrainian long-range drones struck eight Russian oil tankers from the so-called shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov on Tuesday, with attacks continuing over two days against as many as a dozen vessels ferrying fuel to Russian-occupied Crimea. Robert Brovdi, Ukraine's commander of drone warfare, described the operation as "industrial in scale" and said the drones also hit a dry cargo ship and a ferry. He declared the shadow fleet had fled the area but vowed the battle for Crimean fuel supplies would continue.

Kyiv has signalled its intent to target such shipping. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba notified the International Maritime Organization in late June that Ukraine considers these vessels legitimate military targets. However, not all attacked ships are under international sanctions — only two of seven identified vessels appear on sanctions lists.

Moscow has not commented on the strikes. The attacks follow fuel rationing imposed by Russian authorities in late May after earlier Ukrainian drone hits on Crimean oil infrastructure.

Five NATO member states are projected to exceed the alliance's new 3.5% of GDP defense spending target in 2026, as military budgets surge across Europe. Lithuania leads the alliance at an estimated 5.33% of GDP, followed by Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Greece — all five surpassing the 5% mark.

The 3.5% benchmark, agreed at NATO's 2025 Hague summit with a 2035 deadline, arrives as European allies and Canada are set to spend $777 billion on defense this year, an 11% increase from 2025. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged allies to channel funds into Patriot systems, drone technology, and ammunition. Separately, Britain and the Netherlands signed a £2.4 billion naval agreement at the Ankara summit on Tuesday to jointly build amphibious transport ships.

Not all members are keeping pace. Slovenia is expected to fall below 2% of GDP this year, while Germany's spending is projected to rise 25.5% to 2.69%. The Czech Republic, which fell short in 2025 at 1.86%, is estimated to meet the older 2% threshold in 2026 at 2.01%.

Ukrainian forces have struck the Omsk oil refinery in western Siberia, the deepest strike inside Russia since the war began, temporarily halting operations at the country's largest processing facility.

The drone attack, announced by Ukraine's military on Sunday, targeted a site roughly 2,700 kilometres from Ukrainian territory. Omsk Governor Vitaly Khotsenko confirmed the strike, saying air defences downed most drones with no casualties reported. Ukrainian special forces said the primary ELOU-AVT-11 processing unit was damaged, while other installations were shut down due to pipeline damage. The refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, suspended wholesale fuel sales and was temporarily shut down.

Videos circulating on social media showed flames at the complex, which processes over 21 million tonnes annually and supplies fuel to the Russian military. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the strike "a major blow to Russia's oil economy." The attack has added to existing fuel shortages in Russia.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen opened a summit in Ankara on Tuesday urging a massive expansion of Europe's defence industrial base to match Russia's war economy. Rutte, meeting EU leaders ahead of the two-day summit, said the alliance must become more European and called for a defence industry revolution.

Von der Leyen outlined financial plans including up to €800 billion mobilised by 2030 under a ReArm Europe initiative and a €150 billion SAFE lending programme open to non-EU partners. Allies pledged €35 billion over five years for counter-drone defences and announced new aircraft for troop and cargo transport.

The Netherlands announced new defence investments, including joint amphibious ship purchases with Britain, collaboration on AWACS radar aircraft replacement, and Stinger and AMRAAM missile production with allies. The summit, running through 8 July, takes place against a backdrop of tension following a US strike on Iran and reduced American troop levels in Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded urgent deliveries of Patriot systems and interceptor missiles at a NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday, following two Russian missile attacks on Kyiv in less than a week that killed more than 50 civilians. Ukraine's air force intercepted most drones during Monday's assault but failed to down any ballistic missiles.

Zelensky, who is scheduled to meet Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit, argued that Ukraine must become a NATO member and urged Europe to develop its own mass-produced air defence systems. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged member states to ensure Ukraine receives what it needs.

Kyiv has escalated long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil refinery in Omsk, Siberia, more than 2,500 km from the border. Zelensky claimed no major Russian refinery remains unstruck, while Moscow accused Ukraine of terrorism over the campaign.