Situation

NATO Summit

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The NATO leaders' summit in Ankara entered its second and final day on Wednesday with a North Atlantic Council session at the heads-of-state level, as the alliance works to shift conventional defence responsibilities toward European members while Washington retains its nuclear deterrence role.

Leaders are expected to confirm a spending pledge of 3.5% of GDP on direct defence and 1.5% on infrastructure by 2035, alongside a €70 billion military aid package for Ukraine in 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend. The final communiqué will also call on Iran to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons. Poland's delegation, led by President Karol Nawrocki, is scheduled to hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon.

The summit has been marked by heavy security and a ban on all public gatherings through 10 July. On Tuesday, at least 75 people were detained during protests in Ankara, including students and opposition figures.

U.S. President Donald Trump pressed NATO allies to sharply raise defense spending as leaders gathered in Ankara, singling out Spain as a "terrible partner" for refusing to commit to a 5% GDP target by 2035 and faulting European nations for not joining U.S. military action in Iran. Trump also renewed his interest in acquiring Greenland, a territory of NATO member Denmark.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called the two-day summit successful and introduced "NATO 3.0," a framework shifting conventional defense responsibility to Europe and Canada while the U.S. provides nuclear deterrence. Rutte said Russia remains the long-term threat to NATO territory.

The summit's backdrop included U.S. force posture moves: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a review of European troop deployments within six months, cut 5,000 troops from Germany, and attempted to halt a rotational deployment to Poland — a move Trump himself effectively reversed. Belgium and Canada were granted more time to meet spending benchmarks.

Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that Western allies have a narrowing two-month window to pressure Russia into peace negotiations with Ukraine before Moscow may escalate the conflict. Speaking on the sidelines of a NATO leaders' meeting in Ankara, Pavel cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order a general mobilisation after parliamentary elections on 20 September, making negotiations far less likely.

Pavel, who attended the summit alongside Prime Minister Andrej Babis, urged allies to leverage current pressure on Moscow. NATO leaders discussed plans to bolster the alliance's defences against a potential Russian attack, with Secretary General Mark Rutte declaring that "NATO delivers". U.S. President Donald Trump described the meeting as marked by "a lot of love" and unity.

Meanwhile, Russia banned diesel exports and began importing fuel to manage a domestic fuel crisis driven by Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. The United Nations has reported that over 16,000 civilians have been killed in the war.

Germany has reached an agreement with the United States to acquire Tomahawk cruise missiles, a move Chancellor Friedrich Merz said would close a critical gap in the country's military capabilities. Merz announced the deal in a government statement to the Bundestag on Thursday, following negotiations on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

The Tomahawk missiles carry a range of up to 2,500 kilometres, offering Germany a long-range precision strike capability it has lacked since the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The United States withdrew from the INF treaty in 2019 after accusing Russia of violating its terms with the 9M729 missile system.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius had earlier noted progress but no final results in the talks. A previous agreement to station Tomahawks in Germany, reached in 2024, was scrapped under then-President Donald Trump, making Thursday's announcement a significant reversal in transatlantic defence cooperation.

President Donald Trump pressed NATO allies on Tuesday to channel rising defence budgets into American weapons systems, casting a shadow over a summit in Ankara where economic commitments dominate the agenda.

The US approach has already yielded nearly $120 billion in allied defence outlays over the past year, with roughly half directed to American equipment. Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, welcomed European spending efforts but warned against protectionist language in European defence initiatives. Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who hopes billions in orders to US firms will demonstrate the alliance's value, also favours European systems for longer-term procurement.

Tensions flared as Trump labelled Spain a "terrible partner" and reiterated frustration over insufficient allied support in the Iran conflict. The summit follows last year's Hague agreement to raise defence spending targets to 5% of GDP by 2035, a goal all European members are now on track to meet or exceed.

Portugal and 11 fellow NATO members signed a joint declaration on Wednesday pledging to assume greater responsibility for maritime security across the North Atlantic, Baltic Sea and Arctic Ocean. The document, released during the NATO summit in Ankara, commits the signatories — including Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom — to significantly expand naval capabilities over the coming decade and reinforce maritime exercises across the Euro-Atlantic region.

The declaration aims to strengthen maritime command structures and improve situational awareness among allied forces.

Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro portrayed his country as a reliable and proactive NATO ally, noting that Portugal reached the alliance's 2% of GDP defence spending target for the first time in 2025 and has increased defence investment by €1.6 billion since the Hague summit. Portugal is a founding member of NATO.

Separately, former minister Augusto Santos Silva argued it serves Portugal's national interest to participate in an international Arctic mission and said allies must firmly reject U.S. President Donald Trump's claims regarding Greenland.

Sweden and Germany signed a letter of intent on Wednesday to deepen cooperation on air defence, covering missile defence, space capabilities, and advanced combat aviation including unmanned systems such as Germany's Loyal Wingman drone. Defence Minister Pål Jonson and his German counterpart Boris Pistorius signed the agreement on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

Jonson described the deal as an important step for two close allies, European security, and NATO's capability requirements. The two countries already cooperate on electronic warfare and inter-agency coordination on air defence.

The agreement follows Sweden's donation of 16 older Saab Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine roughly a week ago, with Ukraine purchasing 16 new ones. Jonson noted that several European countries, including Germany, have expressed interest in cooperating with Saab.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš declared on 8 July 2026 that his country will not contribute to the €70 billion military aid package for Ukraine confirmed by NATO allies at the Ankara summit, opting instead for a smaller, one-time payment into the PURL munitions programme. Babiš said Foreign Minister Petr Macinka located the funds within the foreign ministry's existing budget rather than committing to the broader German-proposed assistance figure.

The PURL initiative allows European allies and Canada to voluntarily purchase US-made weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Opposition ODS leader Martin Kupka argued the government should prioritise the separate Czech-backed ammunition initiative, which offers opportunities for domestic arms manufacturers.

Babiš urged Europe to focus on developing a European Patriot system for ballistic missile defence. The Czech Republic also declined to join Denmark, the Netherlands, and Estonia in signing a drone technology cooperation agreement with Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump proposed granting Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air-defense missiles during a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. Zelenskyy called the proposal a "great idea", saying his country urgently needs the defense systems.

Trump acknowledged the plan has not yet been discussed with manufacturers Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, and noted Ukraine would quickly learn the complexity involved in production. In a separate move to bolster Kyiv's defenses, Norway announced a contribution of 3 billion kroner to Ukraine's air-defense capabilities. Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin later Wednesday.

The talks come as the war intensifies: Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk overnight, while a Russian missile attack on Kharkiv on July 7 killed two people and wounded roughly 20. Civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2026 remain significantly higher than in the same period last year.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out any prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine and called on Moscow to end the war, saying the choice now rests with the Kremlin. Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Merz pledged continued support for Kyiv as Berlin spearheaded a European initiative to channel €70 billion in aid to Ukraine this year and next, part of a broader €140 billion military assistance package planned for 2026–2027.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending the summit, renewed his push for NATO membership and is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy also signed three new drone cooperation agreements with Denmark, Estonia, and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, senior German lawmakers stressed the need to involve Trump in resolving the conflict, and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius reported progress in talks with Washington on acquiring Tomahawk cruise missiles. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces struck 19 tankers from Russia's shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov over the past 72 hours.

Five NATO members — the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden — plan to open a European maintenance centre for PAC-3 interceptor missiles used in Patriot air-defence systems, according to an intergovernmental agreement signed on 7 July 2026 on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

The deal, concluded during the NATO Defence Industry Forum, was accompanied by a separate memorandum between Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall to establish the first ATACMS ballistic-missile production line outside the United States. The weapons will be manufactured at a Rheinmetall facility in Unterlüß, northern Germany, a move intended to strengthen Europe's defence-industrial base and reduce reliance on American production capacity.

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz commented on the Lockheed Martin arrangement during the Ankara forum, underscoring Warsaw's interest in the project.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has endorsed the latest American military strikes on Iran as "absolutely necessary", offering the alliance's strongest public backing for Washington's escalation as a NATO summit opens in Ankara, Turkey.

The United States struck more than 80 Iranian targets, including 60 vessels belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in retaliation for Iranian fire on civilian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded by launching attacks on 85 US-linked military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Rutte's remarks, delivered as alliance leaders gather in the Turkish capital, underscore Western support for the American campaign and signal that the widening confrontation will dominate the summit agenda.

Denmark will acquire two P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to bolster surveillance and sovereignty enforcement across the Arctic and North Atlantic, Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus announced Tuesday at the NATO summit in Ankara.

The Boeing-built aircraft are equipped with advanced sensors, depth charges, and torpedoes, giving Denmark the capacity to detect, track, and engage hostile submarines and naval vessels. Bruus underscored the role of the jets in defending Greenland, as melting Arctic ice intensifies great-power competition in the region.

The Danish Defence Command is exploring cooperation with NATO allies on the new fleet, including the possibility of a joint unit at a shared air station with partners such as Germany, which also operates the P-8A platform.

Five NATO member states are projected to exceed the alliance's new 3.5% of GDP defense spending target in 2026, as military budgets surge across Europe. Lithuania leads the alliance at an estimated 5.33% of GDP, followed by Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Greece — all five surpassing the 5% mark.

The 3.5% benchmark, agreed at NATO's 2025 Hague summit with a 2035 deadline, arrives as European allies and Canada are set to spend $777 billion on defense this year, an 11% increase from 2025. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged allies to channel funds into Patriot systems, drone technology, and ammunition. Separately, Britain and the Netherlands signed a £2.4 billion naval agreement at the Ankara summit on Tuesday to jointly build amphibious transport ships.

Not all members are keeping pace. Slovenia is expected to fall below 2% of GDP this year, while Germany's spending is projected to rise 25.5% to 2.69%. The Czech Republic, which fell short in 2025 at 1.86%, is estimated to meet the older 2% threshold in 2026 at 2.01%.

NATO has chosen Saab's GlobalEye airborne early warning aircraft to replace its decades-old surveillance fleet, marking one of the alliance's most significant defence procurement decisions in years. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced the selection on Tuesday at the alliance's defence industry forum on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

The order covers up to ten aircraft and will supplant NATO's fleet of 14 Boeing E-3A Sentry planes, which have served since 1982. The GlobalEye system, developed by Saab and based on the Bombardier Global 6000/6500 airframe, will be stationed at NATO's Geilenkirchen airbase in Germany. Eleven member states back the procurement, with Germany expected to shoulder the largest share of the multi-billion euro cost.

President Donald Trump used the NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday to renew his assertion that Greenland should fall under American control rather than remain with Denmark, arguing the island is critical to US national security and that Copenhagen has failed to invest sufficiently in the territory.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen pushed back, stating that Greenland is not for sale and that she expects all allies to respect Danish sovereignty.

The summit also saw Trump announce that Washington would lift sanctions on Turkey dating back to 2000 and consider readmitting Ankara to the F-35 fighter programme. He separately threatened to withdraw all US troops from Europe, saying the continent has changed dramatically over the past two decades, and claimed to have held productive talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders seeking to end their conflict.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen opened a summit in Ankara on Tuesday urging a massive expansion of Europe's defence industrial base to match Russia's war economy. Rutte, meeting EU leaders ahead of the two-day summit, said the alliance must become more European and called for a defence industry revolution.

Von der Leyen outlined financial plans including up to €800 billion mobilised by 2030 under a ReArm Europe initiative and a €150 billion SAFE lending programme open to non-EU partners. Allies pledged €35 billion over five years for counter-drone defences and announced new aircraft for troop and cargo transport.

The Netherlands announced new defence investments, including joint amphibious ship purchases with Britain, collaboration on AWACS radar aircraft replacement, and Stinger and AMRAAM missile production with allies. The summit, running through 8 July, takes place against a backdrop of tension following a US strike on Iran and reduced American troop levels in Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded urgent deliveries of Patriot systems and interceptor missiles at a NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday, following two Russian missile attacks on Kyiv in less than a week that killed more than 50 civilians. Ukraine's air force intercepted most drones during Monday's assault but failed to down any ballistic missiles.

Zelensky, who is scheduled to meet Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit, argued that Ukraine must become a NATO member and urged Europe to develop its own mass-produced air defence systems. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged member states to ensure Ukraine receives what it needs.

Kyiv has escalated long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil refinery in Omsk, Siberia, more than 2,500 km from the border. Zelensky claimed no major Russian refinery remains unstruck, while Moscow accused Ukraine of terrorism over the campaign.