Ukraine War and NATO

The NATO leaders' summit in Ankara entered its second and final day on Wednesday with a North Atlantic Council session at the heads-of-state level, as the alliance works to shift conventional defence responsibilities toward European members while Washington retains its nuclear deterrence role.

Leaders are expected to confirm a spending pledge of 3.5% of GDP on direct defence and 1.5% on infrastructure by 2035, alongside a €70 billion military aid package for Ukraine in 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend. The final communiqué will also call on Iran to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons. Poland's delegation, led by President Karol Nawrocki, is scheduled to hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon.

The summit has been marked by heavy security and a ban on all public gatherings through 10 July. On Tuesday, at least 75 people were detained during protests in Ankara, including students and opposition figures.

U.S. President Donald Trump pressed NATO allies to sharply raise defense spending as leaders gathered in Ankara, singling out Spain as a "terrible partner" for refusing to commit to a 5% GDP target by 2035 and faulting European nations for not joining U.S. military action in Iran. Trump also renewed his interest in acquiring Greenland, a territory of NATO member Denmark.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called the two-day summit successful and introduced "NATO 3.0," a framework shifting conventional defense responsibility to Europe and Canada while the U.S. provides nuclear deterrence. Rutte said Russia remains the long-term threat to NATO territory.

The summit's backdrop included U.S. force posture moves: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a review of European troop deployments within six months, cut 5,000 troops from Germany, and attempted to halt a rotational deployment to Poland — a move Trump himself effectively reversed. Belgium and Canada were granted more time to meet spending benchmarks.

Ukraine's prosecutor general said on July 9 that no evidence has been found of Ukrainian state involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline explosions, rejecting German suspicions that the sabotage was carried out on behalf of Kyiv. The response follows Germany's federal prosecutor's office, which in early July formally charged Ukrainian national Serhii K. as the alleged organiser of the attacks. Kyiv has proposed establishing a joint investigative team with Berlin to examine the case.

In a separate development on the same day, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Washington has approved the sale of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany.

Meanwhile, Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 94 drones at Ukraine overnight on July 9, with Kyiv reporting 72 drones intercepted. Ukraine's military also struck twelve Russian oil tankers in the Sea of Azov.

Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that Western allies have a narrowing two-month window to pressure Russia into peace negotiations with Ukraine before Moscow may escalate the conflict. Speaking on the sidelines of a NATO leaders' meeting in Ankara, Pavel cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order a general mobilisation after parliamentary elections on 20 September, making negotiations far less likely.

Pavel, who attended the summit alongside Prime Minister Andrej Babis, urged allies to leverage current pressure on Moscow. NATO leaders discussed plans to bolster the alliance's defences against a potential Russian attack, with Secretary General Mark Rutte declaring that "NATO delivers". U.S. President Donald Trump described the meeting as marked by "a lot of love" and unity.

Meanwhile, Russia banned diesel exports and began importing fuel to manage a domestic fuel crisis driven by Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. The United Nations has reported that over 16,000 civilians have been killed in the war.

Germany has reached an agreement with the United States to acquire Tomahawk cruise missiles, a move Chancellor Friedrich Merz said would close a critical gap in the country's military capabilities. Merz announced the deal in a government statement to the Bundestag on Thursday, following negotiations on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

The Tomahawk missiles carry a range of up to 2,500 kilometres, offering Germany a long-range precision strike capability it has lacked since the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The United States withdrew from the INF treaty in 2019 after accusing Russia of violating its terms with the 9M729 missile system.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius had earlier noted progress but no final results in the talks. A previous agreement to station Tomahawks in Germany, reached in 2024, was scrapped under then-President Donald Trump, making Thursday's announcement a significant reversal in transatlantic defence cooperation.

President Donald Trump pressed NATO allies on Tuesday to channel rising defence budgets into American weapons systems, casting a shadow over a summit in Ankara where economic commitments dominate the agenda.

The US approach has already yielded nearly $120 billion in allied defence outlays over the past year, with roughly half directed to American equipment. Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, welcomed European spending efforts but warned against protectionist language in European defence initiatives. Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who hopes billions in orders to US firms will demonstrate the alliance's value, also favours European systems for longer-term procurement.

Tensions flared as Trump labelled Spain a "terrible partner" and reiterated frustration over insufficient allied support in the Iran conflict. The summit follows last year's Hague agreement to raise defence spending targets to 5% of GDP by 2035, a goal all European members are now on track to meet or exceed.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan presented each leader attending the NATO summit in Ankara with a loaded revolver engraved with the recipient's name, accompanied by a box of ammunition and a letter waiving Turkish export restrictions on the weapons.

Neither British Prime Minister Keir Starmer nor German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took the firearms home. Starmer left his revolver in Turkey because importing it into Britain would violate domestic law. Merz's weapon was handed over to the German embassy to be properly imported and catalogued in the government's official gifts collection, a spokesman said.

The unusual diplomatic gesture drew attention for its legal complications, as the live ammunition and firearms crossed boundaries that most Western nations tightly regulate.

Sweden and Germany signed a letter of intent on Wednesday to deepen cooperation on air defence, covering missile defence, space capabilities, and advanced combat aviation including unmanned systems such as Germany's Loyal Wingman drone. Defence Minister Pål Jonson and his German counterpart Boris Pistorius signed the agreement on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

Jonson described the deal as an important step for two close allies, European security, and NATO's capability requirements. The two countries already cooperate on electronic warfare and inter-agency coordination on air defence.

The agreement follows Sweden's donation of 16 older Saab Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine roughly a week ago, with Ukraine purchasing 16 new ones. Jonson noted that several European countries, including Germany, have expressed interest in cooperating with Saab.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish President Karol Nawrocki met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, holding their first face-to-face talks since a diplomatic rift over Ukrainian nationalist symbols strained relations between the two allies.

The roughly one-hour meeting was described by Nawrocki as constructive, though he said the historical dispute between the two countries remained unresolved. Nawrocki reaffirmed his unchanged position on the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, saying Poland cannot accept UPA symbolism and that crimes attributed to the group are non-negotiable. He declined to discuss the Volhynia massacre, which he labelled a genocide. In June, Nawrocki revoked Zelensky's highest Polish state honour after a Ukrainian military unit was named after UPA heroes.

Both leaders emphasised that Russia remains the primary shared threat and agreed to continue dialogue.

U.S. President Donald Trump declared a very successful NATO summit on Wednesday, telling reporters that fellow leaders expressed personal affection toward him and that he felt love in the room during Atlantic Council sessions. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said the alliance emerged strengthened as a defensive pact, confirmed the mood.

Trump praised the NATO summit while addressing the press alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He said the two discussed granting Ukraine a license to use U.S. Patriot missiles and acknowledged the war is not the easiest conflict to resolve.

In a separate and potentially significant escalation, Trump said he would most likely strike Iran overnight, offering no further details on timing or targets.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš declared on 8 July 2026 that his country will not contribute to the €70 billion military aid package for Ukraine confirmed by NATO allies at the Ankara summit, opting instead for a smaller, one-time payment into the PURL munitions programme. Babiš said Foreign Minister Petr Macinka located the funds within the foreign ministry's existing budget rather than committing to the broader German-proposed assistance figure.

The PURL initiative allows European allies and Canada to voluntarily purchase US-made weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Opposition ODS leader Martin Kupka argued the government should prioritise the separate Czech-backed ammunition initiative, which offers opportunities for domestic arms manufacturers.

Babiš urged Europe to focus on developing a European Patriot system for ballistic missile defence. The Czech Republic also declined to join Denmark, the Netherlands, and Estonia in signing a drone technology cooperation agreement with Ukraine.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Rome will continue providing military assistance to Ukraine, with Defence Minister Guido Crosetto currently assessing the next steps, she told reporters at a press conference concluding the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday.

Meloni also announced that Italy's defence spending has reached 2.8 percent of GDP and expressed deep concern over the situation surrounding Iran, saying she still holds out hope for negotiations. She said she does not regret investing politically in ties with the White House, despite President Donald Trump's public criticism of Italy in recent days over its refusal to support U.S. operations related to the Strait of Hormuz. Asked about a social media post Trump shared mocking her, Meloni said she would not revisit the matter.

The summit marked Meloni's first face-to-face encounter with Trump since the dispute erupted earlier this week.

U.S. President Donald Trump proposed granting Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air-defense missiles during a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. Zelenskyy called the proposal a "great idea", saying his country urgently needs the defense systems.

Trump acknowledged the plan has not yet been discussed with manufacturers Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, and noted Ukraine would quickly learn the complexity involved in production. In a separate move to bolster Kyiv's defenses, Norway announced a contribution of 3 billion kroner to Ukraine's air-defense capabilities. Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin later Wednesday.

The talks come as the war intensifies: Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries in Saratov and Nizhnekamsk overnight, while a Russian missile attack on Kharkiv on July 7 killed two people and wounded roughly 20. Civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2026 remain significantly higher than in the same period last year.

U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Monday about a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, saying both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky want a deal to end the war that began in February 2022. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump described the conflict as largely a drone war and noted that both leaders were difficult negotiators, comparing the fighting to children brawling in a park.

The diplomatic push followed a near-90-minute phone call between Trump and Putin on U.S. Independence Day, during which Trump offered to mediate. Moscow has signaled it seeks a settlement that preserves its control over the Donbas, while claims that Russian forces captured the city of Kostiantynivka remain disputed by Kyiv. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly continuing negotiations.

Zelensky, who joined Trump in addressing journalists in Ankara, said there were realistic prospects for an end to the war. Both leaders had earlier congratulated Washington on its 250th independence anniversary.

The European Parliament on Wednesday passed an amendment expressing regret over the recent escalation caused by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he renamed a military unit in honor of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). The amendment, tabled by the European People's Party, was adopted by a significant majority with 592 votes in favor, 42 against, and 11 abstentions.

The resolution, attached to the parliament's 2025 report on Ukraine's accession process, states that the decision ignores the sensitive and painful nature of the UPA issue for Polish society, given the estimated tens of thousands of victims. The European Conservatives and Reformists faction had sought to pause opening further negotiation clusters until Kyiv acknowledges the ethnic cleansing campaigns against Poles.

The dispute escalated in late June, contributing to tensions that saw Zelenskyy skip a reconstruction conference in Gdańsk. Ukrainian historian Volodymyr Viatrovych argued that Kyiv should maintain firm rhetoric and not make concessions, which he said only embolden Polish politicians.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out any prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine and called on Moscow to end the war, saying the choice now rests with the Kremlin. Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Merz pledged continued support for Kyiv as Berlin spearheaded a European initiative to channel €70 billion in aid to Ukraine this year and next, part of a broader €140 billion military assistance package planned for 2026–2027.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending the summit, renewed his push for NATO membership and is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy also signed three new drone cooperation agreements with Denmark, Estonia, and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, senior German lawmakers stressed the need to involve Trump in resolving the conflict, and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius reported progress in talks with Washington on acquiring Tomahawk cruise missiles. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces struck 19 tankers from Russia's shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov over the past 72 hours.

Five NATO members — the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden — plan to open a European maintenance centre for PAC-3 interceptor missiles used in Patriot air-defence systems, according to an intergovernmental agreement signed on 7 July 2026 on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.

The deal, concluded during the NATO Defence Industry Forum, was accompanied by a separate memorandum between Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall to establish the first ATACMS ballistic-missile production line outside the United States. The weapons will be manufactured at a Rheinmetall facility in Unterlüß, northern Germany, a move intended to strengthen Europe's defence-industrial base and reduce reliance on American production capacity.

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz commented on the Lockheed Martin arrangement during the Ankara forum, underscoring Warsaw's interest in the project.

Russia unleashed a massive barrage of 68 missiles and 351 drones against Kyiv overnight on 6 July, killing at least 22 people and wounding dozens in one of the largest aerial assaults on the Ukrainian capital in months.

Ukrainian air defences downed a high proportion of cruise missiles but failed to intercept any ballistic weapons, underscoring the deficiencies President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed allies to address at the NATO summit in Ankara. The bombardment continued into 8 July, with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reporting strikes ignited fires in two city districts.

The escalation coincides with alliance deliberations over a commitment to 70 billion euros in military support for Ukraine across this year and next, as Moscow seeks to demonstrate its capacity to inflict damage despite diplomatic pressure.

Five NATO member states are projected to exceed the alliance's new 3.5% of GDP defense spending target in 2026, as military budgets surge across Europe. Lithuania leads the alliance at an estimated 5.33% of GDP, followed by Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Greece — all five surpassing the 5% mark.

The 3.5% benchmark, agreed at NATO's 2025 Hague summit with a 2035 deadline, arrives as European allies and Canada are set to spend $777 billion on defense this year, an 11% increase from 2025. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged allies to channel funds into Patriot systems, drone technology, and ammunition. Separately, Britain and the Netherlands signed a £2.4 billion naval agreement at the Ankara summit on Tuesday to jointly build amphibious transport ships.

Not all members are keeping pace. Slovenia is expected to fall below 2% of GDP this year, while Germany's spending is projected to rise 25.5% to 2.69%. The Czech Republic, which fell short in 2025 at 1.86%, is estimated to meet the older 2% threshold in 2026 at 2.01%.

President Donald Trump used the NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday to renew his assertion that Greenland should fall under American control rather than remain with Denmark, arguing the island is critical to US national security and that Copenhagen has failed to invest sufficiently in the territory.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen pushed back, stating that Greenland is not for sale and that she expects all allies to respect Danish sovereignty.

The summit also saw Trump announce that Washington would lift sanctions on Turkey dating back to 2000 and consider readmitting Ankara to the F-35 fighter programme. He separately threatened to withdraw all US troops from Europe, saying the continent has changed dramatically over the past two decades, and claimed to have held productive talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders seeking to end their conflict.

U.S. President Donald Trump launched a sharp attack on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Tuesday, accusing Rome of withholding support during Washington's military operation involving Iran. Speaking alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump claimed Italy refused to assist with efforts related to the Strait of Hormuz and said Meloni had "made a mistake." He also criticised Germany, France, and the UK for similar refusals, while praising Erdogan for Turkey's constructive role.

Trump escalated the dispute by posting a photo of himself and Meloni on Truth Social captioned "Restraining order needed". He expressed deep disappointment with NATO more broadly.

Italy declined to engage further. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Rome would not respond to such statements. A source close to Meloni ruled out any snub, saying she would greet Trump "with a smile" at the summit. Italy had earlier denied U.S. aircraft landing rights at the Sigonella base in Sicily.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen opened a summit in Ankara on Tuesday urging a massive expansion of Europe's defence industrial base to match Russia's war economy. Rutte, meeting EU leaders ahead of the two-day summit, said the alliance must become more European and called for a defence industry revolution.

Von der Leyen outlined financial plans including up to €800 billion mobilised by 2030 under a ReArm Europe initiative and a €150 billion SAFE lending programme open to non-EU partners. Allies pledged €35 billion over five years for counter-drone defences and announced new aircraft for troop and cargo transport.

The Netherlands announced new defence investments, including joint amphibious ship purchases with Britain, collaboration on AWACS radar aircraft replacement, and Stinger and AMRAAM missile production with allies. The summit, running through 8 July, takes place against a backdrop of tension following a US strike on Iran and reduced American troop levels in Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded urgent deliveries of Patriot systems and interceptor missiles at a NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday, following two Russian missile attacks on Kyiv in less than a week that killed more than 50 civilians. Ukraine's air force intercepted most drones during Monday's assault but failed to down any ballistic missiles.

Zelensky, who is scheduled to meet Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit, argued that Ukraine must become a NATO member and urged Europe to develop its own mass-produced air defence systems. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged member states to ensure Ukraine receives what it needs.

Kyiv has escalated long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil refinery in Omsk, Siberia, more than 2,500 km from the border. Zelensky claimed no major Russian refinery remains unstruck, while Moscow accused Ukraine of terrorism over the campaign.